Semi's Race Still On
Wednesday 20th July, 2005

 

The race for semi final positions may be over after this weekend's round of First Grade matches. Three teams (Collegians, Wests, Thirroul) are gauranteed of places in this years finals series, while another three teams (Corrimal, Dapto, Port Kembla) are battling for the final position.

Collegians seem destined for the Minor Premiership, two wins ahead of second placed Wests. Theoretically, Wests can join the Dogs on 28 points through two wins to end the regular season, however, making up the 71 points difference in for and against may be too big a task for Wests, even given that they face Wollongong in round 18.

Thirroul have wrapped up a finals berth but will be looking to overtake Wests in the final two rounds. To do this, Thirroul will need to get over Wollongong this weekend before repeating their round 9 upset by defeating Collegians for a second time this year. They will also need Wests to drop their two remaining games against Port Kembla and Wollongong, as dropping only one would see The Devils take second with a superior for and against.

Corrimal are in the box seat to return to finals football, two points clear of Dapto and port Kembla with bottom off the ladder Helensburgh their opponents in rounds 16 and 18.

Should Port lose to Wests this weekend and Dapto lose to Collegians, the finals will be set with Collegians taking First place followed by Wests, Thirroul and Corrimal. If Port or Dapto win their round 16 games (against Wests and Collegians respectively), they will live to fight another week regardless of the outcome of Corrimal's round 16 game against Helensburgh. Regardless, Port and Dapto both need to win their remaining two games and hope that Helensburgh can provide an upset win over The Cougars in at least one of their last two match ups to be any chance of forcing a play-off against the Cougars (who incidentally have defeated both Dapto and Port Kembla in both of their regular season matches this season).

The most likely scenario at this stage is for Collegians to come in as Minor Premiers followed by Wests, Thirroul and Corrimal.

In Reserve Grade, Collegians and Berkeley seem to have the top two spots tied up. Mathematically, Berkeley can be caught by Thirroul, but a better for and against, and a game remaining against lowly Corrimal, should see them into second place at worst. That leaves Thirroul in the front running for a top four finish, even though they still face Wollongong, Dapto and Collegians in their remaining games.

The race is on for fourth spot with Wests the favourite to finish in that position. The Devils are four points clear of fifth placed Wollongong and five points clear of sixth place Port Kembla, and face both of these teams in the run to the finals. If Wests get beaten by both Wollongong and Port Kembla, they need to get over University in round 17 to make at worst a play-off for fourth spot (which would be against Wollongong if the Bulls can also overcome Berkeley in their final match. The Blacks need to win all three remaining games and hope that The Devil lose against either Wollongong or University, and that Wollongong lose one of their remaining three games (but not to Wests).

It seems that the top four will end up (in order) Collegians, Berkeley, Thirroul and Wests.

In the Under 18's competition, Wests and Port Kembla will have the first week of the finals off, waiting to see who out of Dapto and either Helensburgh or Berkeley will be knocked out in the first round of elimination matches. With two games left against University and one against Port, Wests should hold onto the Minor Premiership, even if it may be only through a superior for and against to The Blacks, who have the opportunity to draw level on points should they win their remaining three games against Wests, Helensburgh and Dapto.

Dapto look likely to maintain third place with games remaining against Helensburgh, Thirroul and Port Kembla. But the interesting battle is for the remaining finals slot. Helensburgh are currently lying in third position on 14 points, three clear of fourth placed Berkeley. The Tigers face Dapto and Port Kembla over the next two rounds and, although competitive over recent weeks, are unlikely to come away with any points from these games. That leaves them with a likely win over Corrimal in the final round to end the season on 16 points.

Berkeley are on 11 points, but face Corrimal in round 16 and again in round 17. With two likely wins, Berkeley may find themselves in fourth place heading into the final round - one point ahead of Helensburgh. This would leave The Eagles with a potentially dangerous match against Thirroul, a team that can test any other side in the competition on their day. A loss in this round would surely hand Helensburgh the fourth spot, while a win would give Berkeley a shot at Dapto the following week in the Minor Semi Final.

Regardless of what fans might forecast the outcomes to be, there will surely be some teams looking very closely at their rivals' games over the next three rounds of competition.

Note: Wests, Dapto and Port Kembla are the only clubs with any mathematical chance of having all of their three grades in the semi finals in season 2005, although Wests seem the most likely to achieve this feat.