| Finals Puzzle Could End This Round |
|
The Question of who will face who in which Semi Final could be answered as early as this weekend with two of the top two contenders facing off in the match of the round. While Port Kembla will visit Dapto in their round 16 clash, The Canaries all but out of Semi Final contention, reigning premiers Thirroul will meet competition leaders and 2004 title favourites Collegians at Thomas Gibson Oval. Mathematically, Collegians can still drop to third on the table if they lose all three remaining games to Thirroul, Helensburgh and Port Kembla. If this were to happen and Thirroul won all of their remaining games and The Blacks defeated Dapto on Collegians (punctuated by a loss to Thirroul), the table would finish with Port Kembla and Thirroul on 30 points, followed by Collegians on 28 and Wests making up the four, most likely on 26 points. However, given Collegians great form and their skill across the park, it would be unlikely for them to lose all three remaining games, and just one win is needed to cement their place in the top two. If we use the current competition standings as a guide to teams victories over the remaining rounds, we would see Port Kembla defeat Dapto and Collegians defeat Thirroul. If this were the case, Collegians would have their top two finish cemented while moving to 30 points, Port Kembla would remain two points adrift of Collies on 28 points, and Thirroul would remain on 24 competition points. With only rounds 17 and 18 to play, the best Thirroul would be able to hope for is a 28 point finish, perhaps equalling The Blacks. Port Kembla currently have a +278 points differential while Thirroul have a +116 differential. It would be unlikely that over two rounds Thirroul would be able to make up 162 points on Port. Therefore, if port defeat Dapto and Collegians defeat Thirroul this weekend, it would be almost safe to say that week one of the finals series would see Thirroul facing Wests in the sudden-death Minor Semi Final, while Collegians and Port Kembla will face off in the Major Semi Final the following week, the loser to get a second bite of the cherry. In reserve grade, Wests have all but wrapped up the Minor Premiership, currently three points ahead of nearest rival Collegians, with games remaining against Helensburgh, Wollongong and Corrimal. Wests should finish the regular season on 30 points. The question in Reserve Grade is not so much who will get the minor and major positions, but moreso who will join Wests in the end of season four. Again, Collegians only need one more victory in their last three matches, this time to guarantee a semi final berth. With one of their three games against Helensburgh, this should be as close to a certainty as possible. Collies remaining two games are against Thirroul this weekend and Port Kembla in the final round of competition. The Reserve Grade competition is way too close to call. The best bet is that Wests and Collegians will meet in the Major semi final with Thirroul, Port Kembla, Dapto and University the four teams to provide the two Minor Semi Final combatants. The final round could very well hold the key to the make up of the places. Collegians take on Port Kembla in a game which may see Port overtake Collies for second spot if they can win all of their three remaining fixtures against Dapto, Thirroul and the Dogs. On the other hand, it may be a game Port needs to win just to make the end of season matches. Dapto will meet Berkeley, and while the Eagles won't be playing in the post season, they may provide stiff opposition in a game Dapto may need to win to make the finals. The remaining match of significance is the game between Thirroul and University. If Thirroul lose to Collegians and Port Kembla in successive weeks, and Uni win (as expected) against Corrimal, the two teams will be locked on 20 points. University of course play Dapto in round 17 also. This again could be a game in which both teams need a victory to secure a semi final place. In the Under 18's Port have dropped a position after their loss to Dapto, the two teams meeting again this weekend. Port have the hardest run home of the four teams, facing Dapto, Thirroul and Wests. Dapto will face Port, University and Berkeley. Berkeley will face Wollongong, Helensburgh and Dapto (with a game in hand against Wollongong also), while Wests meet up with Helensburgh, Wollongong and Port Kembla. Wests should be able to do enough to make the four, so the finals should involve Dapto, Port Kembla, Berkeley and Wests. While the Devils have not been very impressive in their last few outings, any of the four teams could win the competition on their day. Dapto's Minor Premiership aspirations will most likely hinge on the outcome of this weekend's game against Port. Chances are that the winner of this weekends Port versus Dapto match will go on to take the Minor premiership. Assuming Dapto can repeat their victory from last week, The Canaries will take the minor premiership, Port should have enough left in the tank to finish in second, particularly given their far superior for and against over The Eagles who will finish third, with Wests making up the four. One thing is known for sure regardless of the outcome of any of the remaining regular season games, it is going to be an interesting and exciting run to the finals, and an even more interesting and mouth-watering finals series. |